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Lada förväntas ta marknadsandelar på personbilsmarknaden

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Överordnad kategori: Finansnyheter
Träffar: 1572
Sydkoreanska Hyundai, tyska Volkswagen och ryska Avtovaz, som tillverkar Lada, spås i en omfattande studie ta ökade marknadsandelar under de närmaste fem åren. Japanska biltillverkare som Mazda och Subaru pekas ut som förlorare i kriget om bilköparna.

KPMG har i rapporten Global Automotive Executive Survey intervjuat 200 chefer inom den globala bilindustrin. Bilcheferna tror på stora förändringar på en personbilsmarknad som präglas av överproduktion och skoningslös konkurrens. Oron för överkapacitet på marknader som Tyskland, Frankrike, USA och Japan har ökat sedan den förra studien genomfördes för två år sedan. Biltillverkningen håller snabbt på att flytta från Västeuropa och USA till länder som Indien, Kina och Brasilien, vilket speglas i listan där bilcheferna pekar ut framtidens vinnare och förlorare i bilvärden, se grafik nedan. Bland de märken som pekas ut som de kommande fem årens vinnare märks koreanska, kinesiska och indiska tillverkare, samt Volkswagen och BMW.

”Tudelningen mellan en växande marknad i tillväxtländerna och en krympande marknad i Europa, USA och Japan är en stor utmaning för den traditionella bilindustrin. Volkswagen och BMW är lysande undantag eftersom de är gamla tillverkare som förväntas fortsätta ta marknadsandelar”, säger Björn Hallin, branschansvarig för bilindustrin på KPMG i Sverige.

Volvos ägare Geely ligger i mitten på tillväxtlistan och spås därmed en relativt ljus framtid. Hälften av de tillfrågade tror att Geely kommer att ta marknadsandelar de kommande fem åren. I botten på listan återfinns en rad japanska biltillverkare som exempelvis Mitsubishi, Mazda och Subaru.

”De mindre japanska tillverkarna kommer på sikt att få svårt att överleva som oberoende tillverkare. Enligt bilcheferna kommer de sannolikt att bli uppköpta eller gå in i olika typer av samarbeten. Det är helt enkelt för dyrt att på egen hand utveckla nya modeller”, säger Björn Hallin.

KPMG:s studie pekar även mot stora förändringar i återförsäljarledet, där e-handel väntas öka i betydelse på den konventionella bilhandelns bekostnad. Hela 71 procent av bilcheferna tror att nätbaserade sätt att köpa bil kommer att öka i betydelse, vilket kan jämföras med 64 procent när samma fråga ställdes för två år sedan. Andelen som tror på vanlig bilhandel har på samma tid minskat från 61 till 52 procent.

”På etablerade marknader kommer bilaffären i allt högre utsträckning att ske på biltillverkarnas egna webbplatser, medan bilhandlarna reduceras till uthämtningsställen. Redan idag finns webblösningar där bilköparna både kan välja extrautrustning och ordna finansiering från datorn”, säger Björn Hallin.

Publicerad: 2014-01-22

Källa: www.kpmg.se; KPMG; Hämtad 13 februari 2014

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